WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇾 Paraguay vs France 🇫🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Neutral site (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 04, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Paraguay 26.0% / France 74.0%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Paraguay +1.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Paraguay 0–1 France
France advanced · model to-advance pick France 74.0% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 70' Kylian Mbappé (France)
Actual stats: xG 0.13 – 1.45 · 14 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | France (0-1) | HIT |
| Score | 0-1 | 0-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (54.9%) | 1 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (52.5%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.2%) | 14 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Paraguay +1.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay win | 15.2% | 17.00 | 5.6% | +157.9% |
| Draw | 21.7% | 7.00 | 13.5% | +52.0% |
| France win | 63.1% | 1.17 | 80.9% | -26.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 1.62 | 58.7% | -11.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 2.30 | 41.3% | +3.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.5% | 2.38 | 39.2% | +24.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.5% | 1.53 | 60.8% | -27.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.58) | 48.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.2% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Paraguay 0.91 – 2.00 France · fair Asian handicap Paraguay +1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Paraguay vs France (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Neutral site (Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Paraguay: record LLWWLWLWDW, 1.60 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.42 / xGA 1.33.
France: record WWWWLWWWWW, 2.90 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.09 / xGA 0.86.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Paraguay atk 0.98 def 0.95; France atk 1.64 def 0.73.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Paraguay 0.91, France 2.00
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Paraguay': ['No major absences reported'], 'France': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. France heavy favourites vs a defensively stubborn Paraguay (0.9 tier; ground out of a tough group). Expect the model to under-rate France (cold-on-elites). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Paraguay 15.2% /
draw 21.7% / France 63.1%. Winner France; score 0-1; fair AH Paraguay +1.00.
Over 2.5 54.9%; BTTS 52.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.6 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 48.8%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.