WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇹 Portugal vs DR Congo 🇨🇩 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 1 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Final · Portugal 1–1 DR Congo
Goals: 6' João Neves (Portugal); 45' Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)
Actual stats: xG 0.64 – 0.82 · 9 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-1 | HIT |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (52.8%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (52.9%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (50.5%) | 9 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (54.4%) | 4 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Portugal -0.25 | Half Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 43.6% | 1.27 | 74.8% | -44.6% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 5.75 | 16.5% | +58.9% |
| DR Congo win | 28.7% | 11.00 | 8.6% | +216.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -18.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +10.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.9% | 2.25 | 41.1% | +19.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.0% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -26.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.63) | 49.5% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.5% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.89) | 54.4% | 1.91 | 48.5% | +3.9% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 45.6% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -18.0% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Portugal 1.45 – 1.14 DR Congo · fair Asian handicap Portugal -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Portugal vs DR Congo (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 1)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Portugal: record WWWDLWDWWW, 2.60 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 2.6 / xGA 0.71.
DR Congo: record WWWDWLWWDL, 1.60 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 0.78 / xGA 0.74.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Portugal atk 1.49 def 0.77; DR Congo atk 1.09 def 0.77.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Portugal 1.44, DR Congo 1.14
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Portugal': ['No major absences reported'], 'DR Congo': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Portugal heavy favourites; DR Congo a solid CAF side (AFCON semi-finalists). Same 'model may fade the giant' caveat as Argentina. Neutral venue; DR Congo's CAF slate has patchy xG.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Portugal 43.6% /
draw 27.6% / DR Congo 28.7%. Winner Portugal; score 1-1; fair AH Portugal -0.25.
Over 2.5 47.2%; BTTS 52.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Abdulrahman Al Jassim (Qatar): 4.3 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.41) with WC base 3.5147 -> expected
cards 3.89, P(over 3.5) 54.4%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 8.6 (scale
1.0259) -> P(over 8.5) 49.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.