WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇹 Portugal vs Croatia 🇭🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (BMO Field, Toronto)
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Portugal 65.5% / Croatia 34.5%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Portugal -0.50) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Portugal 2–1 Croatia
Portugal advanced · model to-advance pick Portugal 65.5% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 53' Ivan Perišić (Croatia); 68' Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); 90' Gonçalo Ramos (Portugal)
Actual stats: xG 2.2 – 1.34 · 14 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | Portugal (2-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (51.2%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (53.9%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (50.6%) | 14 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Portugal -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 52.9% | 1.75 | 54.1% | -7.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 3.50 | 27.0% | -11.9% |
| Croatia win | 22.0% | 5.00 | 18.9% | +9.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 2.10 | 45.1% | +7.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -15.7% |
| Both teams score: yes | 53.9% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +5.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 46.1% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -17.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.63) | 49.4% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -5.6% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.6% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -9.0% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -35.8% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +19.1% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Portugal 1.71 – 1.04 Croatia · fair Asian handicap Portugal -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Portugal vs Croatia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (BMO Field, Toronto)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Portugal: record DLWDWWWDWD, 2.30 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.04 / xGA 0.87.
Croatia: record WWWWLLWLWW, 1.90 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.54 / xGA 1.19.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Portugal atk 1.31 def 0.78; Croatia atk 1.04 def 1.01.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Portugal 1.71, Croatia 1.05
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Portugal': ['No major absences reported'], 'Croatia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. A heavyweight tie: Portugal vs Croatia, both strong, both ageing cores. Close to even. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Portugal 52.9% /
draw 25.2% / Croatia 22.0%. Winner Portugal; score 1-1; fair AH Portugal -0.50.
Over 2.5 51.2%; BTTS 53.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.6 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 49.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.