WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇹 Portugal vs Spain 🇪🇸 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
Kickoff Jul 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Portugal 41.9% / Spain 58.1%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Portugal +0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Portugal 0–1 Spain
Spain advanced · model to-advance pick Spain 58.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 90' Mikel Merino (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 0.6 – 1.77 · 10 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Spain (0-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (58.2%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (51.5%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.9%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Portugal +0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 27.3% | 4.10 | 23.2% | +11.8% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 3.50 | 27.1% | +2.3% |
| Spain win | 43.5% | 1.91 | 49.7% | -16.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -24.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 2.00 | 47.4% | +16.5% |
| Both teams score: yes | 48.5% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -17.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 51.5% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +5.5% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.53) | 48.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Portugal 1.02 – 1.34 Spain · fair Asian handicap Portugal +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Portugal vs Spain (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Neutral site (AT&T Stadium, Arlington)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Portugal: record LWDWWWDWDW, 2.30 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 2.03 / xGA 0.78.
Spain: record WDWDDWDWWW, 2.10 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 2.11 / xGA 0.43.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Portugal atk 1.33 def 0.71; Spain atk 1.42 def 0.53.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Portugal 1.02, Spain 1.34
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Portugal': ['No major absences reported'], 'Spain': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. Iberian derby: Portugal vs Spain, the two highest-tier sides to meet so far this tournament. Talent prior reinstated (2026-07-06) — near-equal tiers, so it mostly cancels here. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Portugal 27.3% /
draw 29.2% / Spain 43.5%. Winner Spain; score 1-1; fair AH Portugal +0.25.
Over 2.5 41.8%; BTTS 48.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.5 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 48.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.