WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇵🇹 Portugal vs Uzbekistan WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Final · Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan
Goals: 6' Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); 17' Nuno Mendes (Portugal); 39' Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); 60' Abduvokhid Nematov (Portugal); 87' Rafael Leão (Portugal)
Actual stats: xG 2.41 – 0.25 · 5 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | Portugal (5-0) | HIT |
| Score | 2-1 | 5-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (68.2%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (67.5%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (51.4%) | 5 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (57.9%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Portugal -0.75 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 53.6% | 1.18 | 80.2% | -36.8% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 7.00 | 13.5% | +50.9% |
| Uzbekistan win | 24.9% | 15.00 | 6.3% | +273.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | 1.57 | 60.2% | +7.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.8% | 2.38 | 39.8% | -24.5% |
| Both teams score: yes | 67.5% | 2.38 | 39.2% | +60.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 32.5% | 1.53 | 60.8% | -50.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.56) | 48.6% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 51.4% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.3) | 42.1% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -11.7% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 57.9% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -3.4% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Portugal 2.13 – 1.44 Uzbekistan · fair Asian handicap Portugal -0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Portugal vs Uzbekistan (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Portugal: record WWDLWDWWWD, 2.20 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 2.29 / xGA 0.76.
Uzbekistan: record LWWDWWWLLL, 2.30 GF / 2.10 GA,
xG 1.35 / xGA 1.48.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Portugal atk 1.41 def 0.84; Uzbekistan atk 1.30 def 1.27.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Portugal 2.13, Uzbekistan 1.44
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Portugal': ['No major absences reported'], 'Uzbekistan': ['WC debutants — thin data vs elite op+']}.
Context: Group K. Portugal (Ronaldo era's tail) heavy favourites vs WC debutants Uzbekistan. Expect the model to under-rate Portugal (cold-on-elites). Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Portugal 53.6% /
draw 21.6% / Uzbekistan 24.9%. Winner Portugal; score 2-1; fair AH Portugal -0.75.
Over 2.5 68.2%; BTTS 67.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.28) with WC base 2.899 -> expected
cards 3.30, P(over 3.5) 42.1%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.6 (scale
0.9508) -> P(over 8.5) 48.6%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.