WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇶🇦 Qatar vs Switzerland 🇨🇭 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 1 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
Goals: 17' Breel Embolo (Switzerland); 90' Boualem Khoukhi (Qatar)
Actual stats: xG 0.76 – 3.24 · 13 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Switzerland | Draw (1-1) | MISS |
| Score | 0-1 | 1-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (54.8%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (59.2%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (54.9%) | 13 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (55.7%) | 3 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (85.6%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Qatar +1.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar win | 10.3% | 13.00 | 7.3% | +34.3% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 7.00 | 13.6% | +54.6% |
| Switzerland win | 67.6% | 1.20 | 79.1% | -18.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 1.57 | 60.2% | -29.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 2.38 | 39.8% | +30.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 40.8% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -8.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 59.2% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -7.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.31) | 45.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 54.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.95) | 55.7% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +0.3% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 44.3% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -15.5% |
| Any red card | 14.4% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Qatar 0.64 – 1.87 Switzerland · fair Asian handicap Qatar +1.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Qatar vs Switzerland (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 1)
Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Qatar: record DLDWLLDLLD, 0.70 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 0.65 / xGA 1.48.
Switzerland: record WWWDWDLDWD, 2.20 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.42 / xGA 0.92.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Qatar atk 0.53 def 1.27; Switzerland atk 1.19 def 0.75.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Qatar 0.64, Switzerland 1.87
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Qatar': ['No major absences reported'], 'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Switzerland clear favourites; Qatar (Asian Cup holders) a well-drilled but lower-tier side. Both travelling; neutral.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Qatar 10.3% /
draw 22.1% / Switzerland 67.6%. Winner Switzerland; score 0-1; fair AH Qatar +1.25.
Over 2.5 45.2%; BTTS 40.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Said Martínez (Honduras): 4.17 Y + 0.18 R/match
blended (weight 0.50) with WC base 3.55 -> expected
cards 3.95, P(over 3.5) 55.7%; P(any red)
14.4%. Corners expected 8.3 (scale
0.9952) -> P(over 8.5) 45.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.