WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇿🇦 South Africa vs South Korea 🇰🇷 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Estadio BBVA, Monterrey)
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · South Africa 1–0 South Korea
Goals: 63' Thapelo Maseko (South Africa)
Actual stats: xG 1.16 – 0.9 · 10 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | South Korea | South Africa (1-0) | MISS |
| Score | 0-1 | 1-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (61.8%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (57.3%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (69.1%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | South Africa +0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa win | 18.3% | 5.75 | 16.6% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 4.00 | 23.8% | +14.1% |
| South Korea win | 53.2% | 1.60 | 59.6% | -14.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -23.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +11.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 42.7% | 2.00 | 46.7% | -14.6% |
| Both teams score: no | 57.3% | 1.75 | 53.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.29) | 30.9% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -43.3% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 69.1% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +26.7% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -18.7% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | 1.67 | 55.8% | +2.2% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals South Africa 0.77 – 1.45 South Korea · fair Asian handicap South Africa +0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — South Africa vs South Korea (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group A, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Estadio BBVA, Monterrey)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
South Africa: record WLWLDLDDLD, 1.00 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.06 / xGA 0.96.
South Korea: record LWWWLLWWWL, 1.30 GF / 1.20 GA,
xG 1.56 / xGA 0.89.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. South Africa atk 0.70 def 1.18; South Korea atk 0.96 def 0.79.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda South Africa 0.77, South Korea 1.45
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'South Africa': ['No major absences reported'], 'South Korea': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group A MD3. South Korea favoured on tier vs South Africa. Both likely fighting for a knockout spot. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 South Africa 18.3% /
draw 28.5% / South Korea 53.2%. Winner South Korea; score 0-1; fair AH South Africa +0.50.
Over 2.5 38.2%; BTTS 42.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 7.3 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 30.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.