WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay UPCOMING
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group H, Matchday 1 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami (sea level, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia win | 26.4% | 8.00 | 11.9% | +111.4% |
| Draw | 34.1% | 4.33 | 22.0% | +47.9% |
| Uruguay win | 39.4% | 1.44 | 66.1% | -43.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.0% | 2.10 | 45.1% | -37.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 1.73 | 54.9% | +20.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 39.1% | 2.25 | 41.1% | -12.0% |
| Both teams score: no | 60.9% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -4.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.61) | 49.2% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -11.4% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.7% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 4.19) | 60.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 39.7% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 13.1% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Saudi Arabia 0.84 – 1.07 Uruguay · fair Asian handicap Saudi Arabia +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group H, Matchday 1)
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami (sea level, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Saudi Arabia: record WWLWLLLLWD, 1.20 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 0.64 / xGA 1.55.
Uruguay: record LWWDWWDLDD, 1.00 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 0.83 / xGA 0.89.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Saudi Arabia atk 0.80 def 0.99; Uruguay atk 0.81 def 0.71.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Saudi Arabia 0.84, Uruguay 1.07
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Saudi Arabia': ['No major absences reported'], 'Uruguay': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group H. Uruguay clear favourites; Saudi Arabia a drilled AFC side (beat Argentina in 2022). Strict referee. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Saudi Arabia 26.4% /
draw 34.1% / Uruguay 39.4%. Winner Uruguay; score 0-0; fair AH Saudi Arabia +0.25.
Over 2.5 30.0%; BTTS 39.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Maurizio Mariani (Italy): 4.81 Y + 0.15 R/match
blended (weight 0.45) with WC base 3.5742 -> expected
cards 4.19, P(over 3.5) 60.3%; P(any red)
13.1%. Corners expected 8.6 (scale
1.0068) -> P(over 8.5) 49.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.