WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🏴 Scotland vs Brazil 🇧🇷 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Final · Scotland 0–3 Brazil
Goals: 7' Vinícius Júnior (Brazil); 45' Vinícius Júnior (Brazil); 60' Matheus Cunha (Brazil)
Actual stats: xG 1.04 – 4.33 · 13 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brazil | Brazil (0-3) | HIT |
| Score | 1-2 | 0-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (59.8%) | 3 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (58.0%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (55.5%) | 13 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Scotland +1.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland win | 17.8% | 9.50 | 10.0% | +69.5% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 5.50 | 17.2% | +18.5% |
| Brazil win | 60.6% | 1.30 | 72.8% | -21.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +7.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -19.7% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.0% | 2.25 | 41.1% | +30.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 42.0% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -34.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.27) | 44.5% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -19.9% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 55.5% | 1.91 | 48.5% | +6.0% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Scotland 1.07 – 2.07 Brazil · fair Asian handicap Scotland +1.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Scotland vs Brazil (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Scotland: record WWLWLLWWWL, 2.00 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.49 / xGA 1.57.
Brazil: record WLWDLWWWDW, 2.60 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.85 / xGA 0.75.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Scotland atk 1.10 def 1.11; Brazil atk 1.49 def 0.73.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Scotland 1.07, Brazil 2.07
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Scotland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Brazil': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group C MD3. Brazil heavy favourites vs Scotland. Expect the model to under-rate Brazil (cold-on-elites). MD3 rotation risk for Brazil if already through. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Scotland 17.8% /
draw 21.5% / Brazil 60.6%. Winner Brazil; score 1-2; fair AH Scotland +1.00.
Over 2.5 59.8%; BTTS 58.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.3 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 44.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.