WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results ยท a live, honest experiment
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland vs Morocco ๐ฒ๐ฆ WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3 ยท Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 ยท 22:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 ยท 22:00 UTC
Final ยท Scotland 0โ1 Morocco
Goals: 2' Ismael Saibari (Morocco)
Actual stats: xG 0.51 โ 0.99 ยท 7 corners ยท 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | Morocco (0-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (52.6%) | 1 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (54.9%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (51.0%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (56.1%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Scotland +0.75 | Half Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland win | 21.9% | 5.25 | 18.0% | +14.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 3.60 | 26.3% | -10.9% |
| Morocco win | 53.4% | 1.70 | 55.7% | -9.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 2.20 | 43.1% | +15.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -21.0% |
| Both teams score: yes | 54.9% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +15.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 45.1% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -24.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.74) | 51.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -6.6% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 49.0% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -10.1% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.39) | 43.9% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -19.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 56.1% | 1.83 | 50.0% | +2.9% |
| Any red card | 11.8% | โ | โ | โ |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Scotland 1.06 โ 1.75 Morocco ยท fair Asian handicap Scotland +0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). โโโ = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE โ Scotland vs Morocco (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group C, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Scotland: record WWWLWLLWWW, 2.20 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.67 / xGA 1.54.
Morocco: record WWWWDWWWDD, 2.40 GF / 0.60 GA,
xG 1.65 / xGA 0.76.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Scotland atk 1.15 def 1.11; Morocco atk 1.34 def 0.65.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies โ a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Scotland 1.06, Morocco 1.75
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Scotland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Morocco': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group C MD3. Morocco favoured; Scotland chasing. Neutral venue. MD3 caveat: motivation/rotation not modelled.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Scotland 21.9% /
draw 24.7% / Morocco 53.4%. Winner Morocco; score 1-1; fair AH Scotland +0.75.
Over 2.5 52.6%; BTTS 54.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Ilgiz Tantashev (Uzbekistan): 4.0 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.31) with WC base 3.0543 -> expected
cards 3.39, P(over 3.5) 43.9%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 8.7 (scale
0.9834) -> P(over 8.5) 51.0%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.