WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇪🇸 Spain vs Argentina 🇦🇷 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Final · Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
Kickoff Jul 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · who goes through
To advance: Spain 55.6% / Argentina 44.4%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Spain -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Spain 0–0 Argentina
Spain advanced after extra time (1-0) · model to-advance pick Spain 55.6% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 106' Ferran Torres (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 2.29 – 0.22 · 13 corners · 7 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Draw (0-0) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (60.1%) | 0 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | No (52.5%) | No | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (59.9%) | 13 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 7 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Spain -0.25 | Half Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 40.5% | 2.25 | 42.1% | -8.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 3.00 | 31.6% | -9.7% |
| Argentina win | 29.4% | 3.60 | 26.3% | +5.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 2.30 | 41.3% | -8.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 1.62 | 58.7% | -3.0% |
| Both teams score: yes | 47.5% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -14.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 52.5% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +2.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 7.95) | 40.1% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 59.9% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -33.1% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +16.9% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Spain 1.25 – 1.04 Argentina · fair Asian handicap Spain -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Spain vs Argentina (FIFA World Cup 2026, Final)
Venue: Neutral site (MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Spain: record DDWDWWWWWW, 1.70 GF / 0.30 GA,
xG 1.79 / xGA 0.35.
Argentina: record WWWWWWWWWW, 2.90 GF / 0.70 GA,
xG 2.07 / xGA 0.53.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Spain atk 1.32 def 0.46; Argentina atk 1.47 def 0.67.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Spain 1.26, Argentina 1.04
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Spain': ['No major absences reported'], 'Argentina': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: THE FINAL. Spain (six straight games over the model's lambda; tier already bumped to 1.42) vs Argentina (residuals -23/+78/+24/+26/+26 — 4/5 positive but still not one-directional, tier held at 1.40 per the documented standard). Both sides' knockout pattern: tight 90s, late goals. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Spain 40.5% /
draw 30.1% / Argentina 29.4%. Winner Spain; score 1-1; fair AH Spain -0.25.
Over 2.5 39.9%; BTTS 47.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 40.1%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.