WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇪🇸 Spain vs Belgium 🇧🇪 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final · Neutral site (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood)
Kickoff Jul 10, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 10, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Quarter-final · who goes through
To advance: Spain 58.9% / Belgium 41.1%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Spain -0.25) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Spain 2–1 Belgium
Spain advanced · model to-advance pick Spain 58.9% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 30' Fabián Ruiz (Spain); 41' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium); 88' Mikel Merino (Spain)
Actual stats: xG 2.1 – 0.37 · 6 corners · 4 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | Spain (2-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (55.0%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (51.0%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (52.7%) | 6 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Spain -0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 44.8% | 1.62 | 58.8% | -27.4% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 4.00 | 23.8% | +12.4% |
| Belgium win | 27.1% | 5.50 | 17.3% | +49.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -18.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 2.00 | 47.4% | +9.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 51.0% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -8.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 49.0% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -4.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.87) | 52.7% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 47.3% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Spain 1.43 – 1.07 Belgium · fair Asian handicap Spain -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Spain vs Belgium (FIFA World Cup 2026, Quarter-final)
Venue: Neutral site (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Spain: record DWDDWDWWWW, 1.80 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 1.95 / xGA 0.45.
Belgium: record WWDWWDDWWW, 3.30 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.08 / xGA 0.94.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Spain atk 1.35 def 0.52; Belgium atk 1.55 def 0.77.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Spain 1.43, Belgium 1.07
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Spain': ['No major absences reported'], 'Belgium': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Quarter-final. Spain — who have beaten the model's lambda four straight games — vs a Belgium side that dismantled the USA 4-1. Spain favoured; Belgium the best-attacking side they've met. Recalibrated settings (tau 0.4, shrink 1.3). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Spain 44.8% /
draw 28.1% / Belgium 27.1%. Winner Spain; score 1-1; fair AH Spain -0.25.
Over 2.5 45.0%; BTTS 51.0%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.9 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 52.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.