WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Algeria 🇩🇿 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Neutral site (BC Place, Vancouver)
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 03, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: Switzerland 49.3% / Algeria 50.7%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Switzerland +0.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Switzerland 2–0 Algeria
Switzerland advanced · model to-advance pick Algeria 50.7% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: 10' Breel Embolo (Switzerland); 46' Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)
Actual stats: xG 2.45 – 0.74 · 6 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Algeria | Switzerland (2-0) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (54.9%) | 2 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (51.9%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (57.7%) | 6 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Switzerland +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 35.0% | 2.00 | 47.5% | -30.0% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 3.30 | 28.8% | -5.4% |
| Algeria win | 36.4% | 4.00 | 23.7% | +45.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 2.10 | 45.1% | -5.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 1.73 | 54.9% | -5.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 51.9% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -0.8% |
| Both teams score: no | 48.0% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -8.3% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.11) | 42.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 57.7% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -33.1% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +16.9% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Switzerland 1.24 – 1.26 Algeria · fair Asian handicap Switzerland +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Switzerland vs Algeria (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Neutral site (BC Place, Vancouver)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Switzerland: record DWDLDWDDWW, 2.00 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.48 / xGA 0.93.
Algeria: record WWLWDWWLWD, 2.10 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.89 / xGA 1.06.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Switzerland atk 1.17 def 0.83; Algeria atk 1.17 def 0.81.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Switzerland 1.24, Algeria 1.26
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Algeria': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. Switzerland slight favourites vs a dangerous Algeria (drew 3-3 with Austria). Competitive. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Switzerland 35.0% /
draw 28.7% / Algeria 36.4%. Winner Algeria; score 1-1; fair AH Switzerland +0.00.
Over 2.5 45.1%; BTTS 51.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.1 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 42.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.