WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 2 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Goals: 74' Johan Manzambi (Switzerland); 84' Rubén Vargas (Switzerland); 90' Granit Xhaka (Switzerland); 90' Ermin Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina); 90' Johan Manzambi (Switzerland)
Actual stats: xG 2.06 – 0.23 · 10 corners · 4 cards (1 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Switzerland | Switzerland (4-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 4-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (55.8%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (58.7%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (59.1%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (51.4%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (89.1%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | Switzerland -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 49.2% | 1.55 | 61.4% | -23.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 4.20 | 22.7% | +4.1% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 26.0% | 6.00 | 15.9% | +55.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 2.00 | 47.4% | +11.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 1.80 | 52.6% | -20.4% |
| Both teams score: yes | 58.7% | 2.05 | 45.3% | +20.3% |
| Both teams score: no | 41.3% | 1.70 | 54.7% | -29.8% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.01) | 40.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 59.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.6) | 48.5% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -7.3% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 51.4% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -7.4% |
| Any red card | 10.9% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Switzerland 1.73 – 1.22 Bosnia & Herzegovina · fair Asian handicap Switzerland -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 2)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Switzerland: record WWDWDLDWDD, 1.90 GF / 0.90 GA,
xG 1.54 / xGA 0.94.
Bosnia & Herzegovina: record LDWWDWWDDD, 2.30 GF / 1.40 GA,
xG 1.61 / xGA 1.42.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Switzerland atk 1.17 def 0.79; Bosnia & Herzegovina atk 1.23 def 1.24.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Switzerland 1.73, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.22
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Bosnia & Herzegovina': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group B MD2. Switzerland favoured; Bosnia chasing points. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Switzerland 49.2% /
draw 24.8% / Bosnia & Herzegovina 26.0%. Winner Switzerland; score 1-1; fair AH Switzerland -0.50.
Over 2.5 55.8%; BTTS 58.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee João Pinheiro (Portugal): 4.41 Y + 0.1 R/match
blended (weight 0.32) with WC base 3.178 -> expected
cards 3.60, P(over 3.5) 48.5%; P(any red)
10.9%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.9509) -> P(over 8.5) 40.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.