WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Canada 🇨🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 3 · BC Place, Vancouver
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · Switzerland 2–1 Canada
Goals: 46' Rubén Vargas (Switzerland); 57' Johan Manzambi (Switzerland); 76' Promise David (Canada)
Actual stats: xG 1.11 – 1.66 · 9 corners · 3 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 5/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Switzerland | Switzerland (2-1) | HIT |
| Score | 0-0 | 2-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (65.7%) | 3 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (56.8%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (59.6%) | 9 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (61.3%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Switzerland +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 35.2% | 2.50 | 38.0% | -11.9% |
| Draw | 32.5% | 2.90 | 32.8% | -5.7% |
| Canada win | 32.3% | 3.25 | 29.2% | +4.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.3% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -24.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.7% | 1.67 | 56.9% | +9.5% |
| Both teams score: yes | 43.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -17.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 56.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +8.4% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.4) | 59.6% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 40.4% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.15) | 38.7% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 61.3% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Switzerland 1.06 – 1.01 Canada · fair Asian handicap Switzerland +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Switzerland vs Canada (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group B, Matchday 3)
Venue: BC Place, Vancouver
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Switzerland: record WDWDLDWDDW, 2.00 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.63 / xGA 0.89.
Canada: record DDWWDDWDDW, 1.50 GF / 0.40 GA,
xG 1.47 / xGA 0.76.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Switzerland atk 1.22 def 0.79; Canada atk 0.95 def 0.66.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Switzerland 1.06, Canada 1.01
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Canada': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group B MD3. Played in Vancouver, so Canada (nominal away) actually have home advantage that the neutral setting does NOT model -> the model under-rates Canada here. Both sides have points; MD3 rotation risk if standings are settled.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Switzerland 35.2% /
draw 32.5% / Canada 32.3%. Winner Switzerland; score 0-0; fair AH Switzerland +0.00.
Over 2.5 34.3%; BTTS 43.2%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.24) with WC base 2.7763 -> expected
cards 3.15, P(over 3.5) 38.7%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.4 (scale
0.9451) -> P(over 8.5) 59.6%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.