WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Colombia 🇨🇴 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Neutral site (BC Place, Vancouver)
Kickoff Jul 07, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 07, 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: Switzerland 47.7% / Colombia 52.3%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (Switzerland +0.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · Switzerland 0–0 Colombia
Switzerland advanced after extra time (pens 4-3) · model to-advance pick Colombia 52.3% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: —
Actual stats: xG 0.39 – 1.09 · 10 corners · 5 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 2/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colombia | Draw (0-0) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (54.6%) | 0 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (52.1%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (58.6%) | 10 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 5 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Switzerland +0.00 | Push | PUSH |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 33.5% | 3.50 | 27.1% | +17.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 3.10 | 30.6% | -11.6% |
| Colombia win | 38.0% | 2.25 | 42.2% | -14.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 2.30 | 41.3% | +4.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 1.62 | 58.7% | -11.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 52.1% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +1.7% |
| Both teams score: no | 47.9% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -13.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.05) | 41.4% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -31.0% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 58.6% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +23.0% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -22.9% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.62 | 57.7% | +5.0% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Switzerland 1.21 – 1.30 Colombia · fair Asian handicap Switzerland +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Switzerland vs Colombia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Neutral site (BC Place, Vancouver)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Switzerland: record WDLDWDDWWW, 2.20 GF / 1.10 GA,
xG 1.68 / xGA 0.96.
Colombia: record WWLLWWWWDW, 1.70 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.7 / xGA 0.77.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Switzerland atk 1.28 def 0.84; Colombia atk 1.17 def 0.71.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Switzerland 1.21, Colombia 1.30
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Switzerland': ['No major absences reported'], 'Colombia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. Switzerland (impressive 2-0 over Algeria, and back at BC Place where they played the R32) vs Colombia, who ground out 1-0 over Ghana. Two disciplined, defensively solid sides — likely low-scoring. Talent prior live. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Switzerland 33.5% /
draw 28.5% / Colombia 38.0%. Winner Colombia; score 1-1; fair AH Switzerland +0.00.
Over 2.5 45.4%; BTTS 52.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.0 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 41.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.