WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Sweden vs Tunisia WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 1 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey (~540 m, neutral site)
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 15, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Final · Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
Goals: 7' Yasin Ayari (Sweden); 30' Alexander Isak (Sweden); 43' Omar Rekik (Tunisia); 59' Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden); 84' Mattias Svanberg (Sweden); 90' Yasin Ayari (Sweden)
Actual stats: xG 1.33 – 0.28 · 6 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tunisia | Sweden (5-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 5-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (62.7%) | 6 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (65.4%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (67.3%) | 6 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Over 3.5 (60.5%) | 1 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (85.6%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Sweden +0.00 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 36.5% | 1.91 | 49.6% | -30.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 3.40 | 27.9% | -18.0% |
| Tunisia win | 39.4% | 4.20 | 22.6% | +65.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 2.20 | 43.1% | +37.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -37.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 65.4% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +27.5% |
| Both teams score: no | 34.6% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -37.7% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.05) | 67.3% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 32.7% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 4.2) | 60.5% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +4.4% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 39.5% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -20.9% |
| Any red card | 14.4% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Sweden 1.61 – 1.67 Tunisia · fair Asian handicap Sweden +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Sweden vs Tunisia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 1)
Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey (~540 m, neutral site)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Sweden: record DLLLLDWWLD, 1.30 GF / 2.00 GA,
xG 1.29 / xGA 1.85.
Tunisia: record WWWLDLWDLL, 1.50 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 0.79 / xGA 1.7.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Sweden atk 1.03 def 1.31; Tunisia atk 1.02 def 1.24.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Sweden 1.61, Tunisia 1.67
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Sweden': ['Minor squad bug reported pre-match'], 'Tunisia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Tight Group F clash. Sweden (Isak/Gyökeres attack) vs Tunisia's disciplined defensive block. Card-happy referee. Neutral venue, modest altitude (negligible).
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Sweden 36.5% /
draw 24.1% / Tunisia 39.4%. Winner Tunisia; score 1-1; fair AH Sweden +0.00.
Over 2.5 62.7%; BTTS 65.4%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Yael Falcón Pérez (Argentina): 4.7 Y + 0.18 R/match
blended (weight 0.47) with WC base 3.6027 -> expected
cards 4.20, P(over 3.5) 60.5%; P(any red)
14.4%. Corners expected 10.0 (scale
1.0341) -> P(over 8.5) 67.3%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.