WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Tunisia vs Netherlands 🇳🇱 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Final · Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands
Goals: 3' Ellyes Skhiri (Netherlands); 7' Brian Brobbey (Netherlands); 54' Hazem Mastouri (Tunisia); 62' Jan Paul van Hecke (Netherlands)
Actual stats: xG 0.62 – 1.85 · 10 corners · 0 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | Netherlands (1-3) | HIT |
| Score | 0-2 | 1-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (63.4%) | 4 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (51.7%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (52.6%) | 10 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 0 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Tunisia +1.50 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia win | 9.1% | 23.00 | 4.1% | +109.1% |
| Draw | 16.1% | 9.00 | 10.4% | +45.0% |
| Netherlands win | 74.8% | 1.10 | 85.5% | -17.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 1.40 | 68.2% | -11.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 3.00 | 31.8% | +9.7% |
| Both teams score: yes | 51.7% | 2.50 | 37.5% | +29.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 48.3% | 1.50 | 62.5% | -27.6% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.86) | 52.6% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -12.4% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 47.4% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Tunisia 0.82 – 2.50 Netherlands · fair Asian handicap Tunisia +1.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Tunisia vs Netherlands (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Tunisia: record WLDLWDLLLL, 1.10 GF / 2.40 GA,
xG 0.54 / xGA 1.71.
Netherlands: record WWDWWDLWDW, 2.50 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.16 / xGA 0.85.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Tunisia atk 0.82 def 1.47; Netherlands atk 1.34 def 0.80.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Tunisia 0.82, Netherlands 2.50
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Tunisia': ['No major absences reported'], 'Netherlands': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group F MD3. Netherlands heavy favourites vs Tunisia. Expect the model to under-rate the Dutch (cold-on-elites). MD3 rotation risk. Neutral venue.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Tunisia 9.1% /
draw 16.1% / Netherlands 74.8%. Winner Netherlands; score 0-2; fair AH Tunisia +1.50.
Over 2.5 63.4%; BTTS 51.7%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.9 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 52.6%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.