WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇹🇷 Türkiye vs Paraguay 🇵🇾 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 20, 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Final · Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay
Goals: 2' Matías Galarza (Paraguay)
Actual stats: xG 2.12 – 0.32 · 12 corners · 4 cards (1 red)
Prediction vs result 2/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Türkiye | Paraguay (0-1) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 0-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (55.6%) | 1 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (50.9%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (64.2%) | 12 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (56.1%) | 4 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | Türkiye -0.25 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye win | 42.2% | 2.00 | 47.6% | -15.5% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 3.40 | 28.0% | -2.9% |
| Paraguay win | 29.2% | 3.90 | 24.4% | +13.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -11.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +0.2% |
| Both teams score: yes | 50.9% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -8.4% |
| Both teams score: no | 49.1% | 1.95 | 48.0% | -4.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.78) | 64.2% | 1.80 | 51.5% | +15.6% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 35.8% | 1.91 | 48.5% | -31.7% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.39) | 43.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 56.1% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Türkiye 1.37 – 1.10 Paraguay · fair Asian handicap Türkiye -0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Türkiye vs Paraguay (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Türkiye: record LWWWDWWWWL, 2.20 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.52 / xGA 1.2.
Paraguay: record DWDLLWWLWL, 1.30 GF / 1.30 GA,
xG 1.87 / xGA 1.28.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Türkiye atk 1.18 def 0.92; Paraguay atk 0.89 def 0.84.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Türkiye 1.37, Paraguay 1.10
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Türkiye': ['No major absences reported'], 'Paraguay': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group D MD3. Türkiye favoured; Paraguay defensive. Neutral venue. MD3 rotation risk if group is decided.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Türkiye 42.2% /
draw 28.6% / Paraguay 29.2%. Winner Türkiye; score 1-1; fair AH Türkiye -0.25.
Over 2.5 44.4%; BTTS 50.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Ilgiz Tantashev (Uzbekistan): 4.0 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.31) with WC base 3.0543 -> expected
cards 3.39, P(over 3.5) 43.9%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 9.8 (scale
0.9834) -> P(over 8.5) 64.2%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.