WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇹🇷 Türkiye vs USA 🇺🇸 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (USA host)
Kickoff Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Final · Türkiye 3–2 USA
Goals: 3' Auston Trusty (USA); 10' Arda Güler (Türkiye); 31' Barış Alper Yılmaz (Türkiye); 49' Sebastian Berhalter (USA); 90' Kaan Ayhan (Türkiye)
Actual stats: xG 3.05 – 2.13 · 11 corners · 1 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USA | Türkiye (3-2) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 3-2 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (50.1%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (55.1%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (76.7%) | 11 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (63.2%) | 1 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Türkiye +0.25 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye win | 28.4% | 3.80 | 25.0% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 4.00 | 23.7% | +6.9% |
| USA win | 44.9% | 1.85 | 51.3% | -17.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 1.62 | 58.7% | -19.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 2.30 | 41.3% | +14.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 55.1% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -11.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 44.9% | 2.20 | 42.3% | -1.1% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 10.99) | 76.7% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 23.3% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.07) | 36.8% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 63.2% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Türkiye 1.18 – 1.53 USA · fair Asian handicap Türkiye +0.25
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Türkiye vs USA (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3)
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (USA host)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Türkiye: record WWWDWWWWLL, 2.20 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 1.69 / xGA 0.92.
USA: record DWWWLLWLWW, 2.20 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 1.48 / xGA 1.11.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Türkiye atk 1.21 def 0.79; USA atk 1.37 def 0.90.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 0.8363/1.0944 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Türkiye 1.18, USA 1.53
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Türkiye': ['No major absences reported'], 'USA': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group D MD3. Played at SoFi Stadium, so the USA (nominal away) have home advantage -> host_away routes the home edge to the USA. Sea-level venue, so the generic ~10% home boost is appropriate (no altitude term needed, unlike Azteca).
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Türkiye 28.4% /
draw 26.7% / USA 44.9%. Winner USA; score 1-1; fair AH Türkiye +0.25.
Over 2.5 50.1%; BTTS 55.1%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.22) with WC base 2.7044 -> expected
cards 3.07, P(over 3.5) 36.8%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 11.0 (scale
0.9899) -> P(over 8.5) 76.7%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.