WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇺🇸 USA vs Australia 🇦🇺 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3 · USA (HOST — home advantage applies)
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Final · USA 2–0 Australia
Goals: 11' Cameron Burgess (USA); 43' Alexander Freeman (USA)
Actual stats: xG 1.08 – 0.35 · 11 corners · 7 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USA | USA (2-0) | HIT |
| Score | 1-1 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (50.8%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (53.9%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (53.6%) | 11 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (51.8%) | 7 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | USA -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA win | 52.0% | 1.60 | 59.2% | -16.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 4.33 | 21.9% | +10.2% |
| Australia win | 22.6% | 5.00 | 18.9% | +13.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -3.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -6.1% |
| Both teams score: yes | 53.9% | 1.95 | 48.0% | +5.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 46.1% | 1.80 | 52.0% | -17.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.41) | 46.4% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.6% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.59) | 48.2% | 2.25 | 41.1% | +8.5% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 51.8% | 1.57 | 58.9% | -18.6% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals USA 1.68 – 1.05 Australia · fair Asian handicap USA -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — USA vs Australia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3)
Venue: USA (HOST — home advantage applies)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
USA: record WDWWWLLWLW, 2.20 GF / 1.60 GA,
xG 1.7 / xGA 1.26.
Australia: record WWLLLWWLDW, 1.40 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 0.97 / xGA 1.21.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. USA atk 1.46 def 0.94; Australia atk 0.87 def 0.90.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1219/0.8648 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda USA 1.68, Australia 1.06
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'USA': ['No major absences reported'], 'Australia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Group D MD3. USA are co-HOSTS — home advantage applies. MD3 caveat: possible rotation/dead-rubber if standings are set (model doesn't see group context).
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 USA 52.0% /
draw 25.4% / Australia 22.6%. Winner USA; score 1-1; fair AH USA -0.50.
Over 2.5 50.8%; BTTS 53.9%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Felix Zwayer (Germany): 4.63 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.31) with WC base 3.0543 -> expected
cards 3.59, P(over 3.5) 48.2%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 8.4 (scale
0.9834) -> P(over 8.5) 46.4%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.