WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇺🇸 USA vs Belgium 🇧🇪 WINNER MISS
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16 · Lumen Field, Seattle (USA host)
Kickoff Jul 07, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 07, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Round of 16 · who goes through
To advance: USA 50.4% / Belgium 49.6%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (USA +0.00) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · USA 1–4 Belgium
Belgium advanced · model to-advance pick USA 50.4% ADVANCE CALL MISS
Goals: 9' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium); 31' Malik Tillman (USA); 33' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium); 57' Hans Vanaken (Belgium); 90' Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)
Actual stats: xG 0.63 – 2.01 · 8 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 4/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USA | Belgium (1-4) | MISS |
| Score | 1-1 | 1-4 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (56.2%) | 5 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (60.5%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (66.5%) | 8 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | No | HIT |
| AH | USA +0.00 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA win | 37.6% | 2.35 | 40.2% | -11.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 3.50 | 27.0% | -10.2% |
| Belgium win | 36.8% | 2.88 | 32.8% | +5.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 1.67 | 56.9% | -6.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 2.20 | 43.1% | -3.6% |
| Both teams score: yes | 60.5% | 1.53 | 60.8% | -7.2% |
| Both teams score: no | 39.5% | 2.38 | 39.2% | -6.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.98) | 66.5% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 33.5% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | 2.10 | 44.2% | -26.4% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | 1.67 | 55.8% | +8.3% |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals USA 1.49 – 1.48 Belgium · fair Asian handicap USA +0.00
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — USA vs Belgium (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16)
Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle (USA host)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
USA: record WWLLWLWWLW, 2.30 GF / 1.70 GA,
xG 1.48 / xGA 1.28.
Belgium: record DWWDWWDDWW, 3.00 GF / 0.80 GA,
xG 2.09 / xGA 0.92.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. USA atk 1.39 def 0.97; Belgium atk 1.43 def 0.80.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1491/0.8529 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda USA 1.49, Belgium 1.48
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'USA': ['No major absences reported'], 'Belgium': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 16. USA (host, nominal home) at Lumen Field vs Belgium. neutral=False applies the generic home edge to the USA (sea-level venue, appropriate). Belgium needed ET to get past Senegal. Talent prior reinstated (2026-07-06). Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 USA 37.6% /
draw 25.7% / Belgium 36.8%. Winner USA; score 1-1; fair AH USA +0.00.
Over 2.5 56.2%; BTTS 60.5%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 10.0 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 66.5%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.