WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇺🇸 USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara (USA host)
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Kickoff Jul 02, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Round of 32 · who goes through
To advance: USA 68.1% / Bosnia & Herzegovina 31.9%
= P(win in 90′) + ½·P(draw); a level game at 90′ goes to extra time / penalties (treated as a coin flip). 1X2 and Asian handicap (USA -0.75) below are the 90-minute markets.
Final (90′) · USA 2–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina
USA advanced · model to-advance pick USA 68.1% ADVANCE CALL HIT
Goals: 45' Folarin Balogun (USA); 82' Malik Tillman (USA)
Actual stats: xG 0.88 – 0.25 · 7 corners · 3 cards (1 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USA | USA (2-0) | HIT |
| Score | 2-1 | 2-0 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (67.0%) | 2 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | Yes (65.2%) | No | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (57.9%) | 7 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (65.0%) | 3 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (87.8%) | Yes | MISS |
| AH | USA -0.75 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA win | 57.6% | 1.38 | 69.0% | -20.5% |
| Draw | 21.0% | 5.00 | 19.1% | +5.0% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 21.4% | 8.00 | 11.9% | +71.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 1.80 | 52.6% | +20.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | 2.00 | 47.4% | -33.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 65.2% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +36.9% |
| Both teams score: no | 34.8% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -42.0% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.27) | 57.9% | — | — | — |
| Under 8.5 corners | 42.1% | — | — | — |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 2.99) | 35.0% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 65.0% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 12.2% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals USA 2.19 – 1.31 Bosnia & Herzegovina · fair Asian handicap USA -0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32)
Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara (USA host)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
USA: record WWWLLWLWWL, 2.30 GF / 1.80 GA,
xG 1.51 / xGA 1.36.
Bosnia & Herzegovina: record WWDWWDDDLW, 2.40 GF / 1.50 GA,
xG 1.29 / xGA 1.19.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. USA atk 1.40 def 1.01; Bosnia & Herzegovina atk 1.21 def 1.07.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.1491/0.8529 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda USA 2.19, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.31
after 90% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'USA': ['No major absences reported'], 'Bosnia & Herzegovina': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Round of 32. USA (host, nominal home) at sea level vs Bosnia. neutral=False applies the home edge to the USA — sea-level venue, so the generic ~10% boost is appropriate. Knockout: a draw goes to ET/pens.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 USA 57.6% /
draw 21.0% / Bosnia & Herzegovina 21.4%. Winner USA; score 2-1; fair AH USA -0.75.
Over 2.5 67.0%; BTTS 65.2%.
4. EVENTS. Referee TBD: 4.2 Y + 0.13 R/match
blended (weight 0.20) with WC base 2.6438 -> expected
cards 2.99, P(over 3.5) 35.0%; P(any red)
12.2%. Corners expected 9.3 (scale
0.964) -> P(over 8.5) 57.9%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.