WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
🇺🇸 USA vs Paraguay 🇵🇾 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1 · SoFi Stadium (LA Stadium), Inglewood, CA (elevation 44 m, roofed)
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 13, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Final · USA 4–1 Paraguay
Goals: 7' Damián Bobadilla (USA); 31' Folarin Balogun (USA); 45' Folarin Balogun (USA); 73' Mauricio (Paraguay); 90' Giovanni Reyna (USA)
Actual stats: xG 1.34 – 0.47 · 4 corners · 6 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 3/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USA | USA (4-1) | HIT |
| Score | 1-0 | 4-1 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 (57.5%) | 5 goals | MISS |
| BTTS | No (52.1%) | Yes | MISS |
| Corners | Over 8.5 (66.2%) | 4 corners | MISS |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (52.7%) | 6 cards | MISS |
| Red card | No (89.6%) | No | HIT |
| AH | USA -0.50 | Full Win | HIT |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA win | 48.9% | 2.05 | 45.9% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.25 | 29.0% | -8.5% |
| Paraguay win | 22.9% | 3.75 | 25.1% | -13.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 2.50 | 38.0% | +6.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 1.53 | 62.0% | -11.9% |
| Both teams score: yes | 47.9% | 2.10 | 44.2% | +0.7% |
| Both teams score: no | 52.1% | 1.67 | 55.8% | -13.2% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 9.95) | 66.2% | 1.91 | 48.5% | +26.3% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 33.8% | 1.80 | 51.5% | -39.1% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.54) | 47.3% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -13.3% |
| Under 3.5 cards | 52.7% | 1.83 | 50.0% | -3.3% |
| Any red card | 10.4% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals USA 1.46 – 0.94 Paraguay · fair Asian handicap USA -0.50
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — USA vs Paraguay, WC2026 Group D (SoFi Stadium, 2026-06-13 01:00 UTC) 1. DATA. Last 10 internationals via Sofascore interception scraper. USA (record LWDWWWLLWL): 1.80 GF / 1.70 GA, xG 1.84 / xGA 1.28. Paraguay (record LDWDLLWWLW): 1.20 GF / 1.00 GA, xG 1.22 / xGA 1.56. USA's 2026 form is poor (1W-3L) but against elite friendly opposition (Germany, Portugal, Belgium) — opponent tiers prevent overreaction. Paraguay's defensive identity shows in low xGA; attack is thin without Enciso, heavily Almiron-dependent. 2. RATINGS. USA atk 2.00 def 1.30; Paraguay atk 0.95 def 0.88. Weights from model_weights.json (post KOR-CZE update): home boost 1.1057 for USA (true home opener, SoFi occasion), away-context penalty 0.9204 for Paraguay (travel; partly offset by large Paraguayan/Latin American support in LA — noted as a limitation). lambda(USA) 1.46, lambda(PAR) 0.94. No altitude factor (44 m). 3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson lambda3 0.12; 1X2 USA 48.9% / draw 28.2% / PAR 22.9%. Winner: USA; score 1-0; fair AH USA -0.50. Over 2.5 42.5%; BTTS yes 47.9%. Pochettino high press vs Alfaro low block compresses goal expectation; Paraguay concede little but create less. 4. EVENTS. Referee Makkelie 3.50 Y + 0.09 R career (lenient on reds): expected cards 3.54, P(over 3.5) 47.3%; P(any red) 10.4%. Corners: expected 10.0 -> P(over 8.5) 66.2%. Low-block teams concede corner volume; USA's wide press wins them back. (talisman, penalties) leads. 5. WEATHER. 20.9 C, 79% RH, 0% rain — SoFi is roofed; conditions neutral. 6. LIMITATIONS. As before, plus: Adams fitness reports conflict (priced as starting); the away penalty assumes hostile-crowd travel which understates Paraguay's LA expat support; CONMEBOL qualifying sample for Paraguay is defensively skewed by design (Alfaro game-states).