WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
Uzbekistan vs Colombia 🇨🇴 WINNER HIT
FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 1 · Neutral site (USA)
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Kickoff Jun 18, 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Final · Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia
Goals: 40' Daniel Muñoz (Colombia); 60' Abbosbek Fayzullaev (Uzbekistan); 65' Luis Díaz (Colombia); 90' Jaminton Campaz (Colombia)
Actual stats: xG 1.16 – 1.61 · 7 corners · 2 cards (0 red)
Prediction vs result 6/8 markets hit
| Market | Model called | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colombia | Colombia (1-3) | HIT |
| Score | 1-2 | 1-3 | MISS |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 (63.2%) | 4 goals | HIT |
| BTTS | Yes (62.8%) | Yes | HIT |
| Corners | Under 8.5 (58.4%) | 7 corners | HIT |
| Cards | Under 3.5 (54.8%) | 2 cards | HIT |
| Red card | No (88.2%) | No | HIT |
| AH | Uzbekistan +0.75 | Loss | MISS |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book odds | Book p* | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan win | 22.1% | 10.00 | 9.5% | +121.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 4.50 | 21.0% | -0.7% |
| Colombia win | 55.8% | 1.36 | 69.5% | -24.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 1.91 | 50.0% | +20.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 1.91 | 50.0% | -29.8% |
| Both teams score: yes | 62.8% | 2.20 | 42.3% | +38.1% |
| Both teams score: no | 37.2% | 1.62 | 57.7% | -39.9% |
| Over 8.5 corners (exp 8.06) | 41.6% | 2.00 | 46.3% | -16.9% |
| Under 8.5 corners | 58.4% | 1.73 | 53.7% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 cards (exp 3.45) | 45.2% | — | — | — |
| Under 3.5 cards | 54.8% | — | — | — |
| Any red card | 11.8% | — | — | — |
Model-only estimates (no straight market equivalent): expected goals Uzbekistan 1.26 – 2.05 Colombia · fair Asian handicap Uzbekistan +0.75
In the table above, Model = our probability and Book odds / Book p* = the bookmaker's (p* has the margin removed). EV = value per unit staked at the model's probability (positive = model sees value). “—” = market not in the captured feed.
Model reasoning (chain of thought)
PREDICTION RATIONALE — Uzbekistan vs Colombia (FIFA World Cup 2026, Group K, Matchday 1)
Venue: Neutral site (USA)
1. DATA. Last-10 internationals (Sofascore interception scraper).
Uzbekistan: record WLWWDWWWLL, 2.40 GF / 1.80 GA,
xG 1.48 / xGA 1.36.
Colombia: record WWWDWWLLWW, 2.50 GF / 1.00 GA,
xG 1.61 / xGA 0.74.
Opponent-strength tiers (configs.MASTER_TIERS) applied per match.
2. RATINGS. Uzbekistan atk 1.28 def 1.23; Colombia atk 1.49 def 0.80.
NEUTRAL VENUE: home boost / away penalty set to 1.0/1.0 (both teams
travel to a host-nation site; no host advantage applies — a key difference
from the Korea/Canada/USA host-nation games). lambda Uzbekistan 1.26, Colombia 2.05
after 85% model weight + shrink to 1.3 baseline.
Injuries: {'Uzbekistan': ['No major absences reported'], 'Colombia': ['No major absences reported']}.
Context: Colombia favoured; Uzbekistan a solid AFC side on WC debut. Neutral venue; Uzbekistan's AFC slate has patchy xG.
3. MODEL. Bivariate Poisson (lambda3 0.12). 1X2 Uzbekistan 22.1% /
draw 22.1% / Colombia 55.8%. Winner Colombia; score 1-2; fair AH Uzbekistan +0.75.
Over 2.5 63.2%; BTTS 62.8%.
4. EVENTS. Referee Anthony Taylor (England): 3.6 Y + 0.12 R/match
blended (weight 0.35) with WC base 3.3054 -> expected
cards 3.45, P(over 3.5) 45.2%; P(any red)
11.8%. Corners expected 8.1 (scale
0.9827) -> P(over 8.5) 41.6%.
5. LIMITATIONS. 10-match samples; hand-set tiers/priors; Poisson corners; lineups
probable not confirmed; card base rate calibrated on only 4 WC matches.