WC2026 Model Tracker
Bivariate-Poisson predictions vs actual results · a live, honest experiment
10
matches settled
3/10
match-result correct
1.108
mean 1X2 log loss
+4.5u
fair-AH units (10 bets)
Upcoming
| Match | Full prediction |
|---|---|
| Belgium v Egypt | View prediction → |
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | View prediction → |
| Iran v New Zealand | View prediction → |
Each row is clickable — open a match for the full model prediction and model-vs-market table.
Predictions vs results
| Match | Predicted | Actual | What hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇷 South Korea v Czechia 🇨🇿 | South Korea | 2-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦 | Canada 1-0 | 1-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay 🇵🇾 | USA 1-0 | 4-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland 🇨🇭 | Switzerland 0-1 | 1-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil v Morocco 🇲🇦 | Morocco 1-1 | 1-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland 🏴 | Scotland 1-1 | 0-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| 🇦🇺 Australia v Türkiye 🇹🇷 | Türkiye 0-1 | 2-0 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| Netherlands v Japan | Japan 1-1 | 2-2 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | Ecuador 0-0 | 1-0 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
| Sweden v Tunisia | Tunisia 1-1 | 5-1 | 1X2O/U 2.5BTTSCornersCardsAH |
green model's lean was right · red wrong. 1X2 = match result · O/U 2.5 = total goals · BTTS · Corners (8.5) · Cards (3.5) · AH = Asian handicap. Open a match for the full prediction-vs-result breakdown and actual stats.